![\"stock-election\"](\"http:\/\/lendongxuongdoai.info\/dollarsandsense\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/stock-election.png\")
<\/p>\nM\u1ed7i m\u00f9a b\u1ea7u c\u1eed M\u1ef9 l\u1ea1i r\u1ed9 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ee7 ki\u1ec3u d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch xem x\u00e9t nhi\u1ec1u lo\u1ea1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan kh\u00e1c nhau. C\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 d\u00f9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u00fang k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3. N\u1ebfu tin th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u hi\u1ec7n nay t\u1eeb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed1t cho Hillary Clinton.<\/p>\n
\u0110\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn thi\u00ean ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500 \u0111\u00e3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u00fang k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 b\u1ea7u c\u1eed t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1984, theo m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Strategas Research Partners LLC. N\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chu\u1ea9n m\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng trong ba th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu th\u00ec \u0111\u1ea3ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kim t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng (incumbent party) th\u1eafng c\u1eed trong 86% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1928. Hi\u1ec7n nay, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m 3,6% t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 8-8 khi ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n g\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y b\u1ea7u c\u1eed ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c; n\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 x\u00e9t ri\u00eang y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 b\u1ecf qua m\u1ecdi chuy\u1ec7n l\u00ecnh x\u00ecnh kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a hai \u1ee9ng c\u1eed vi\u00ean \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n hai \u0111\u1ea3ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t, th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1m t\u1ed1t cho Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
Ngo\u00e0i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 3 th\u00e1ng, h\u00f4m th\u1ee9 Ba 2-11-2016 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t trong ba tu\u1ea7n, gi\u1ea3m ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 s\u00e1u li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 2.111,72, l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1ee3t xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 2.100 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 7-7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111ang tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1ee3t d\u1ed1c l\u00e2u nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 8-2015 gi\u1eefa l\u00fac c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u0103m d\u00f2 d\u01b0 lu\u1eadn cho th\u1ea5y cu\u1ed9c \u0111ua v\u00e0o Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng \u0111ang c\u00f2 k\u00e8 s\u00edt sao. H\u00f4m th\u1ee9 Ba 2-11, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng CBOE Volatility Index t\u0103ng 9% l\u00ean t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 27-6.<\/p>\n
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![\"stock-election-2\"](\"http:\/\/lendongxuongdoai.info\/dollarsandsense\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/stock-election-2.png\")
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X\u00e9t v\u1ec1 logic, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ti\u00ean \u0111o\u00e1n kh\u00e1 t\u1ed1t c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n l\u00e0 do th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf; n\u1ebfu c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi t\u00e2m l\u00fd b\u1ea5t m\u00e3n c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng m\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho \u1ee9ng c\u1eed vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea3ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kim t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng. Tuy t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u n\u0103m nay n\u1eb1m trong s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, n\u00f3 \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra gi\u1eefa l\u00fac GDP t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u00e8o u\u1ed9t v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n sau khi c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c s\u00fat gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong m\u1ed9t n\u0103m v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ea1c quan c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u0169ng b\u0103n kho\u0103n li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p k\u00edch th\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n l\u00e0 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng kinh t\u1ebf \u00edt \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc kia.<\/p>\n
Daniel Clifton, tr\u01b0\u1edfng ban nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u1edf Strategas Research Partners, n\u00f3i, “Thi\u00ean h\u1ea1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i l\u00e0 ‘T\u00f4i ngh\u0129 Clinton s\u1ebd th\u1eafng’, nh\u01b0ng thi\u00ean h\u1ea1 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecf ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 do s\u1ee3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n nh\u01b0 Brexit. Ph\u1ea1m vi c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 [c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra] \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean li\u00ean t\u1ee5c trong nh\u1eefng tu\u1ea7n g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng.”<\/p>\n
Uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong vi\u1ec7c ti\u00ean \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 s\u00fat gi\u1ea3m th\u00ea th\u1ea3m h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 6, khi ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n kh\u1eafp th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ea7u \u00fd d\u00e2n \u1edf V\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c Li\u00ean hi\u1ec7p Anh v\u1ec1 Brexit \u0111\u1ec3 r\u1ed3i gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t trong 5 n\u0103m khi c\u1eed tri ch\u1ecdn r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi EU. Ch\u1ec9 4 th\u00e1ng sau c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ee9c lo ng\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh trong tu\u1ea7n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t m\u00f9a b\u1ea7u c\u1eed \u0111\u1ee7 chuy\u1ec7n h\u1ef7 n\u1ed9 \u00e1i \u1ed1. M\u1ee9c d\u1eabn \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1 xa tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Clinton so v\u1edbi Trump \u0111\u00e3 thu h\u1eb9p trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u0103m d\u00f2 d\u01b0 lu\u1eadn t\u1eeb khi c\u00f3 tin h\u00f4m th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u 28-10 l\u00e0 FBI l\u1ea1i quan t\u00e2m t\u1edbi e-mail c\u1ee7a b\u00e0.<\/p>\n
Nh\u1eefng ai hy v\u1ecdng d\u00f9ng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu l\u00e0m h\u00e0n th\u1eed bi\u1ec3u ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb th\u00ec n\u00ean hi\u1ec3u r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n x\u01b0a nay hi\u1ebfm khi xa r\u1eddi v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c ti\u1ec5n n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 trong 7 n\u0103m qua. Nh\u1edd l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 3,7% m\u1ed7i qu\u00fd k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 3-2009, trong khi GDP t\u0103ng 0.9%. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0110\u1ec7 nh\u1ecb Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n